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The whole game of projecting fantasy football production or football stats is opportunity meets situation.
Two seasons ago, BearDigest.com not only predicted by David Montgomery total ground yardage on the head, but also got Allen Robinson receive a total of yards within 20 yards.
Situations develop during the seasons as they do during the offseason. The situation last year was the stench of Matt Nagy’s offensive team and coaches, combined with COVID and injuries.
Injuries always disrupt prediction activity.
However, there are ways around this.
Last year, the big question for fantasy players was what would Justin Fields do stat-wise as a quarterback retained by the Nagy regime?
The numbers put forward in many places for Fields were totally unrealistic. BearDigest predicted this:
- 10 starts, 5-5 record, 63% completion, 2,328 yards, 16 touchdowns, 10 interceptions, 85.6 passer ratings, 6.8 yards per attempt, 331 rushing yards, 4 touchdowns.
It was made using a formula involving need and considering the likely struggles ahead for Nagy’s attack.
The yards per attempt missed by a tenth. Plays were hit right in the head, interceptions were nailed. His yardage wasn’t far off and his yardage was in the ballpark. Fields’ completion percentage and overall passer rating were wrong, but if you measure his last five starts after Nagy figured out he couldn’t let Fields sit there and get beaten, then they were dead. His passer rating for the last five starts was within two points and his completion percentage was within two points.
Injuries and the unexpected happen in the pre-season. A projection for Fields was made well before training camp, but now that receivers have been injured, others have stepped up and the offensive line has been shuffled, new numbers are needed for Fields and the others. Bears.
More important to the fantasy player is the logic behind these reviews as it could lead them to make decisions based on the actual expectations of the coaching staff.
David Montgomery’s involvement looks to be a little bigger than before training camp as it looks like offensive coordinator Luke Getsy doesn’t need more sharing if he likes what he’s seeing from Montgomery, but he has options. Fields’ numbers are influenced by Getsy’s love of the running offense and RPO, with Fields running him or Fields running after overtime and then running.
Additionally, certain passing and receiving numbers are greatly influenced by the initial wave of training camp/preseason injuries to the receiving corps.
Here are revised numbers for key bears for use by fantasy players or anyone who enjoys number projections.
QB Justin Fields
Revised FanNation 2022 projection: 15 starts, 455 attempts, 288 completions, 3,322 yards, 63.1% completions, 20 touchdowns, 10 interceptions, 7.3 yards per attempt, 90.56 passing ratings, 687 rushing yards, 100 attempts, 6 touchdowns .
FanNation 2022 Screening: 16 starts, 466 attempts, 298 completions, 63.9% completions, 3,448 yards, 21 touchdowns, 11 interceptions, 7.4 yards per attempt, 91.39 passer rating, 627 rushing yards, 97 attempts, 5 touchdowns .
WR Darnell Mooney
Revised FanNation 2022 projection: 72 receptions, 1,062 yards, 14.7 ypc., 6 touchdowns.
FanNation 2022 Screening: 83 receptions, 1,145 yards, 13.8 ypc., 6 touchdowns.
TE Cole Kmet
Revised FanNation 2022 projection: 56 receptions, 580 yards, 10.4 ypc., 3 TDs
FanNation 2022 screening for Kmet: 66 receptions, 700 yards, 10.1 ypc., 5 TDs.
RB David Montgomery
Revised FanNation 2022 projection: 246 carries, 997 yards, 4.05 ypc., 8 touchdowns; 41 receptions, 369 yards, 9.0 ypc., 1 TD.
FanNation 2022 Screening: 233 carries, 955 yards, 4.1 ypc, 8 touchdowns; 60 receptions, 481 yards, 2 TDs.
WR Byron Pringle
Revised FanNation 2022 projection: 30 receptions, 401 yards, 13.6 ypc., 3 touchdowns.
FanNation 2022 Screening: 53 receptions, 645 yards, 12.2 ypc., 5 touchdowns.
WR Velus Jones Jr.
Revised FanNation 2022 projection: 24 receptions, 244 yards, 10.2 ypc., 1 TD; 11 carries, 48 yards, 0 touchdowns; 24 punt returns, 672 yards, 28.0 yards/return.
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FanNation 2022 Screening: 36 receptions, 369 yards, 2 TDs; 6 carries, 25 yards, 0 touchdowns; 18 kick returns, 450 yards, 25.0, 0 touchdowns.
WR Equanimeous St. Brown
Revised FanNation 2022 projection: 18 receptions, 275 yards, 15.3 ypc., 1 TD
*No original screening due to anticipated lack of total production.
TE Ryan Griffin
Revised FanNation 2022 projection: 17 receptions, 167 yards, 9.8 ypc., 1 TD.
FanNation 2022 Screening: 23 receptions, 243 yards, 10.6 ypc. 2 TDs.
Twitter: BearDigest@BearsOnMaven
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